In the coming months San Francisco will experience an increase in closed sales because the number of pending sales has increased by 8.9% which represents 2.6 months of the current supply of homes. If supplies continue to decrease and demand stays strong, maybe a seller’s market might be on the horizon.
The market will change if employment increases and interest rates stays affordable. However, if more distressed homes come on the market, we may not see a market shift for a long time or we may see a double dip in prices.
Home prices declined 3.8% in February compared to last year, however they are up 4.2% from two years ago. Could this be a sign of our recovery or maybe the double dip is about to happen? It’s hard to say but it is a great time to purchase a property. Interest rates are still at all time lows, prices have gone down, there are a lot of properties to choose from, and you still have some tax benefits. When you’re ready, there are a lot of things to consider.
In January, pending home sales declined however, the data is based on contracts signed in January not closings. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, “The housing market is healing with sales fluctuating at times, depending on the flow of distressed properties coming on the market,” he said. He expects the recovery will be a straight upward path because there is still an elevated level of shadow inventory of distressed homes and interest rates are still historically low.
According to the Wall Street Journal, there are plenty of signs that the housing market finally bottoming out. If investors and buyers continue to take advantage of the most affordable housing in decades, prices will probably bottom out in 2011.
Lenders have foreclosed on 78,133 properties in January, which is up by 12% from the previous month but it is 11% less then a year ago. Although there has been an increase in default notices, auctions, and bank repossessions in January, it is encouraging to know that the increase is 17% less then a year ago.
5 states are responsible for more then 50% of the nation’s total foreclosure activity; California, Florida, Michigan, Arizona and Illinois. Nevada was the hardest hit state with the highest foreclosure rate in the nation. Bank repossessions increased 16% from December which is more then 5 times the national average. Even though we are seeing more foreclosures, they are less then what it was a year ago. Let’s hope that this is a good sign that we might be on the right track to recovery.
During the 4th quarter of 2010, over half of the metropolitan areas have experienced price gains from a year ago, but the rest of the areas did not. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun is encouraged by the trend and says the sales in the last quarter of 2010 has absorbed much of the inventory including distress properties. This could be a good sign that we may be recovering. With the continued improvement of the market and more jobs become available, the market will be back to normal.
Interest rates have been a big factor in sustaining the sales of homes. Last year we have seen interest rates at its all time low, but the rates have been inching up. This is a reaction to the housing recovery that we might be experiencing. We may never see rates lower then 5% in the future. In my 30 years of working in this industry, I thought I would never see interest rates lower than 6%, but it did happen. If you’re planning to finance a purchase or refinancing an existing property, you may want to do it now before the rates go sky high.
Have you been hearing about the looming wave of foreclosures coming? Well, it’s slowly coming to the market place. With the economic problems we are facing, it is taking a toll on everybody. We are still not out of our crisis. Some areas in the country are really going through hard times. California is so lucky, we have four cities out of eight, that ranks as the most miserable cities in the United States. Let’s hope that things don’t get any worst!!!
Wow!! It’s almost the end of January and boy did it fly by. Since the beginning of the year, the rates have been going up. In November of 2010, the 30 year fixed loans were at a 40 year low of 4.17% the 15 year rate was 3.57%. Now it’s at 4.8% and the 15 year rate is 4.09%. I don’t think we will ever see the November rates ever again. There will probably be less borrowing, in 2011, due to the economic conditions.
So what do you think prices of homes will do? Well, most of the country will continue to see declines or stablize in prices except for 10 cities. Unfortunately, Florida and parts of the Western parts of the US will see the largest drops in home values.
Home prices dropped 4.1% annually, in 2010. Although there was an increase in prices, overall 70% of the major market prices experienced a decline and 8 had double digit declines. There were 6 markets in California that managed to have some price gain.
Unfortunately, 2011 will probably be the same, unless unemployment and distressed homes decrease. Until there are more jobs and less people loosing their homes, we will not see too many price gains.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!! Foreclosures are down 21% of the previous month and 14% below November of last year. This is great news but I think we will see another wave of foreclosures and short sales in 2011. It could be as early as January 2011. We probably will see another wave of distressed properties on the market in the coming year.
If you remember in 2008-2009, the market was flooded with the first wave of distress properties for sale. There are still a lot of people having problems with their loan payments and the banks will have to follow through with their right to foreclose to recuperate the losses.
HUD has created a website for the public to be able to research a wide variety of economic and housing market data at the regional, state, metropolitan area and county levels. This information is being provided by the Census Bureau, Labor Dept., state and local government, housing industry sources, as well as HUD’s own economist. You’ll be able to look at “Market at a glance” reports, Regional Housing Market profiles, regional Narratives, and a Comprehensive housing market analysis.
