My buyers are still experiencing multiple offer situations with all of the available listings here on the San Francisco peninsula, especially with homes that are priced under $500,000. They are getting frustrated and some have stopped searching all together. All I can say is to hang in there and something will come your way. This is still the best time to buy something while interest rates and home prices are still low. Multiple offers will continue if the inventory continues to be scarce. There might be some relief soon as banks start to release their huge shadow inventory. It is estimated that there is more then a million homes that are being held. Will this HELP? I hope so.
In the past few weeks the real estate market showed multiple signs of a rebound of some sort. In 20 metropolitan areas prices rose 0.2% in August but were still down 3.8% year over year. This may all change soon. In September, pending sales were down 4.6%. Could this be another beginning of a triple dip? With Freddie Mac requesting for another $6 billion of your tax money and holding about 60,000 REOs from the market, which will take approx. 15 years to sell off, I don’t think our country’s rebound in a lot of areas will happen anytime soon and hope that the triple dip is not too severe.
Some help is on the way. The Federal Housing Financing Agency is trying to help change the market. They are making a few changes to the Home Affordable Refinancing Program to attract more borrowers and stimulate the mortgage industry and helping more homeowners. The National Association of REALTORS are also concerned with the state of our real estate market and has a 5 point plan that could get us out of this triple dip situation and stabilize the market. With any change, it will take a while for the changes to make a difference. Let’s hope that it won’t be too long.
If you think we’re the only country facing problems, then you haven’t been paying attention to our other neighbors in Europe. They are experiencing economical problems as well!! In fact, their problems do help our country but it could be a sign of what can happen to the U.S..
If we can’t stop our spending and fix our current problems, we will be creating an economical monster for our children. This beast will not be easily defeated. As our problem debtors become larger (the beast), the REO housing inventory becomes larger, and will take more time to be sold off.
If our government continues to ignore our budget problems that we have today, we will be in the same credit classification as Greece. Once we loose our credibility, things will be more expensive. Something has to be done.
Although our budget is operating at a 60 % deficit, home sales have increased and is on track to out perform last year. This increase is fueled by homes being more affordable, historically low interest rates, and lower unemployment, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist. April did show signs of our economy improving but the housing industry is still fragile.
Even though we have an increase in sales, the values of the homes have dropped 3% in the first quarter of 2011, which makes this decline the largest since 2008.
With all this going on, it’s still a great time to make that investment in the “Great American Dream”.
Bank owned inventory nationally grew to a record high of 2.2 million in March and foreclosures starts increased by 33% month over month. This may sound bad but foreclosure sales have increased and delinquencies are down by 11% which is the lowest since 2008.
Pending sales have increased which is a good sign that the demand is strong and the inventory will decrease hopefully faster then any increase. The U.S. is expected to add at least 750,000 new households in 2011 which is a healthy demand. A lot of these new homeowners are a result of lower home prices that are cheaper to buy then to rent, low interest rates, and more confidence in the recovery of the economy.
“The good news is that recent home buyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years,” Yun added.
Home sales rose slightly last month. This is the sixth month in a row that home sales have increased. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says “We’re clearly on a recovery path”. This is a good sign and sales should continue to increase.
There are all types of buyers out taking advantage of the market. First time buyers purchased 33% of homes sold in March and all cash buyers purchased 35% of the homes sold, for example. With the market current market conditions, it makes more sense to purchase a property then renting.
The California Housing Finance Agency (CalHFA) is administering $2 billion in federal funds for borrowers who are at risk of losing their homes. Borrowers who took out loans after January 1, 2009 are eligible for 4 different programs as long as the property is a primary resident, meet income requirements, and face a documented financial hardship.
The four programs are the following:
- The Unemployment Mortgage Assistance Program (UMA) which will help homeowners with their mortgage payments.
- The Mortgage Reinstatement Assistance Program (MRAP) which provides funds for homeowners who have fallen behind in their payments
- The Transition Assistance Program which provides relocation assistance
- The Principal Reduction Program (PRP) which provides funds to reduce the outstanding principal balance.
GMAC, Guild Mortgage, CalHFA, and California Dept. of Veterans Affairs are the organization that offers all 4 programs.
There are about 78,000 homes that are either vacant and for sale, or under construction. This is an improvement and with a normal level of buying, the homes would sell in 2 1/2 months. The study shows that there is a housing shortage brewing. If this happens, then it would change the market to a seller’s market and buyers will have a hard time purchasing again. The market today is still considered a buyer’s market and there are more bargain hunters out looking for deals. More investors are also very active making all cash purchases. There are 6 cities that are considered to be cheaper then renting the same house. All this may be history if unemployment rises, which it is decreasing today, interest rates continue to rise and become non deductible.
For the third month in a row, mortgage lates, 90 days or more, have declined. This could be another sign of recovery. With fewer defaults, the inventory level of REOs and short sales should go down as well. Could this be the bottom or is it a double dip situation. Only time will provide us with an answer. Either way, now is still a good time to purchase real estate.
In the coming months San Francisco will experience an increase in closed sales because the number of pending sales has increased by 8.9% which represents 2.6 months of the current supply of homes. If supplies continue to decrease and demand stays strong, maybe a seller’s market might be on the horizon.
The market will change if employment increases and interest rates stays affordable. However, if more distressed homes come on the market, we may not see a market shift for a long time or we may see a double dip in prices.
